Methodological & Statistical Research
Looking back and pressure-testing the assumptions behind oncology cost-effectiveness evaluations.
This poster reviews how ICER selected survival-extrapolation curves across oncology assessments between 2016 and 2025. Re-analyzing the 2021 ide-cel multiple myeloma assessment with a broader set of candidate models produced life-year estimates approximately 30% lower than ICER’s selected log-normal curve (2.3 vs. 3.3 LYs), highlighting how survival-curve selection can materially shape cost-effectiveness conclusions.
The findings reinforce a central idea: in oncology HEOR, the methodological choices behind a cost-effectiveness estimate are not merely technical details—they shape the evidence that payers, regulators, and patients ultimately see.
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