In response to ISPOR’s recently published 2026-2027 HEOR Trends, David Miller, CEO, Genesis Research Group, suggests that we’re no longer being evaluated on our ability to produce data, but on our ability to influence decisions under constraint.
Read ISPOR’s Top 10 HEOR Trends for 2026–2027 in isolation, and nothing seems radical. But as a system, the message is unmistakable. We have hit a structural inflection point in this industry.
For years, the mandate for HEOR organizations was simple: generate evidence.
Today, that mandate has shifted. We are no longer being evaluated on our ability to produce data; we are being judged on our ability to influence decisions under constraint. That requires adaptable teams, cross-functional perspectives, and the ability to evolve strategy in real-time.
The central question for leadership is no longer, “Can we generate the data?” That problem is largely solved. The question now is, “What evidence will have the most impact on decision-making?”
The selection problem
We are drowning in the data lakes. The explosion of AI and Real-World Evidence (RWE) means we can run almost any analysis we can dream up. But just because we can analyze everything doesn’t mean we should.
Abundance is becoming our biggest liability. Organizations that analyze everything will lose to those that curate. The advantage lies in distinguishing what is technically interesting from what is defensible under scrutiny. Many strategies quietly fail right here, mistaking volume for insight.
Policy is no longer a separate vertical
We used to treat economic models and policy risk as separate swim lanes. That’s over. With the rise of value-based healthcare and mechanisms like MFN (Most Favored Nation) pricing, your evidence is now directly exposed to policy interpretation.
If your evidence is weak or lacks context, you don’t just face delays in access, you get compressed pricing headroom and increased political exposure. You can no longer assume payer neutrality. You must build narratives that anticipate a skeptical reading. If your model can’t withstand that scrutiny, it’s not ready.
The “global” liability
ISPOR highlights cross-country HTA alignment, usually framing it as an efficiency gain. I see it differently: it’s a potential risk accelerator.
When HTA bodies align, inconsistency travels instantly. Evidence that works in one market but fails in another becomes a global liability. The era of regional workarounds is closing. If you aren’t assuming your data will be reused and reinterpreted across jurisdictions, you aren’t preparing for reality.
The “add-on” problem with patient centricity
Patient voice and digital measures are table stakes yet rarely drive the core economic model. They sit adjacent to it.
We tend to invoke patient centricity after we’ve already fixed our core assumptions. But as the definition of “value” expands to include whole-person outcomes, this separation falls apart. You can’t retrofit patient outcomes onto a financial model and expect it to hold water.
HEOR is an executive discipline now
One of the most telling trends on the list is the “growing relevance” of HEOR. Let’s be clear about why that is. It’s not because our methods got better. It’s because our failures got more expensive.
When HEOR misses the mark, consequences are enterprise-level: price erosion, policy exposure, credibility loss. To say nothing of wasted resources. These aren’t abstract risks; they are observable hits to the P&L. That elevates this field from a technical function to a leadership discipline. It requires judgment, sequencing, and the ability to make explicit trade-offs. This is where strategic partnership truly matters: organizations that integrate flexible, cross-functional expertise supported by experience and good strategic judgment can make smarter, faster, and more confident trade-offs under pressure.
The bottom line
The winners in this next cycle won’t be the ones with the fastest AI or the most sophisticated generation tools. They will be more strategic organizations, those that integrate global expertise and data-agnostic insight, who set themselves apart through disciplined selection and confident judgement.
Knowing when not to analyze matters just as much as knowing how. Understanding which assumptions will crumble under scrutiny is the new skillset. This isn’t a methodology challenge anymore. It’s a leadership challenge.
If you have questions or wish to discuss how our industry-experienced experts can lend their strategic judgment to your organization, get in touch.
Read the full report in its entirety ISPOR’s website.
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